Photo courtesy of Stinkee Beek
A political contest anywhere and its results would have its fair share of significance and symbolism ascribed to it. It goes without saying that a contest at Tanjong Pagar GRC, in which its current incumbent is the PAP GRC team helmed by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, during the elections will have its natural ramifications. The last contest at Tanjong Pagar was when it was still a single member ward that has been held by Lee for a long time. Lee’s last opponent was MG Guru, and the former garnered 81.6% of the votes. Ever since Tanjong Pagar was merged with other constituencies into Tanjong Pagar GRC, none has contested there so far.
If someone decides to contest there, what is the significance behind such a contest?
One obvious significance is that the jury will be out on whether Lee’s presence within the parliament is wanted, and in the larger picture, if his mode of governance is still needed and currently relevant to Singapore. Thus, the spotlight will be on Lee and not the opposition up against him and his team. And the voters at Tanjong Pagar will have to decide whether he should continue or not. The inevitable question that these voters have to grapple with is – can Singapore do without Lee?
During elections, there can be a few factors that influence the voter’s decision. Some may vote willingly, others unwillingly out of fear or a grudging acceptance (because he believes he may have more to lose if he voted otherwise). For a reasonably intelligent voter at Tanjong Pagar who votes in support for Lee and his team, the significance is clear-cut. The former believes there is still a role for Lee to play in the governance of Singapore, in whatever capacity of his appointment in office. In fact, some may go further to say that Lee is really so indispensable that the PAP government cannot run without him. In other words, he is seen as the vital cog and gear within the PAP machinery. However, the reinforcement of Lee’s indispensability through the polls may not reflect positively on the PAP’s efforts to renew its ranks with young blood in the sense that the younger generation of ministers are perceived to be unable to take on the task of running the Singapore ship in Lee’s absence. Thus, when voters believe that Singapore cannot do without Lee, it is also a form of admission that the next generation of ministers are not able to run the Singapore ship independently of Lee.
If it is a loss for Lee and his team, the writing is clear on the wall – the residents at Tanjong Pagar have decided on behalf of Singapore that the nation is set to be piloted by a new generation of leaders at the helm, albeit independently of Lee. The voters who are likely to vote against Lee can be classified into the staunchly anti-Lee at one extreme end to those who aren’t against Lee but feel that Singapore is in need of a change in direction independent of Lee.
However, one thing remains clear. The power invested in the residents at Tanjong Pagar in charting Singapore’s course provided there is someone else besides the PAP to contest in the ward. They will be deciding between a Lee-guided Singapore ship or a Singapore independent of Lee. All eyes will be on this one in the event of a contest.
Can Singapore do without Lee? I’m afraid that the answer to that question will not be found during elections. Not likely that anybody would try getting elected in Tanjong Pagar. For one thing, going against LKY is seldom if ever the smart thing to do and there is always potential for repercussions down the line, such as broken reputation, bankruptcy, etc. Not many would willingly risk that much. Beside that, the possibility of winning or even getting more than 20% of the vote seems quite remote. Even though many may not be completely sold to PAP, they still have a lot of respect for LKY (for some of his past achievements) and would still vote for him out of gratitude. No point wasting resources fighting a losing battle when there are other GRCs with much more potential.
I say bring it all. As a resident in Tanjong Pagar, I look forward to the day I can cast my vote again.
Having said that, be aware that Tanjong Pagar GRC seems more well-run than other constituency; maybe because the town council, RC, police and other civil authorities know that it is a constituency they better watch their back on.
No one has seen MM in this constituency for a long time (except the recent Duxton launch). He doesn’t need to. His proxy MPs are all covering for him. That’s another ‘beauty’ of the GRC scheme, so that one or two absentee MPs will not be felt at all compared to a single constituency MP whose absence will be felt immediately.
Marc – I don’t think one should assume that just the act of running against LKY will invite a lawsuit. And 20% is quite good, considering one only needs to win 12.5% to keep one’s deposit. I’d say anything more than 12.5% would be considered a victory for the opposition team running in Tanjong Pagar.
This is an interesting post Kelvin