The implications of having more opposition parties

Photo courtesy of whi1e

The 2006 General Elections was the first time over three elections starting from the 1997 Elections onwards that the incumbent People’s Action Party (PAP) wasn’t returned to power. For the 1997 Elections, PAP was returned to power when it garnered a total of 47 out of 83 seats by virtue of walkovers on Nomination Day. During the 2001 Elections, the number of walkovers increased to 55, which guaranteed the PAP a more comfortable return to power. In the 2006 General Elections, however, 47 seats were contested with walkovers resulting in 37 seats going to the PAP, which meant that the PAP did not automatically gain power on Nomination Day.

The current opposition parties count increased by one with the establishment of the Reform Party in its foray into opposition politics. With more opposition parties joining the fray and provided none of them folds up before the next elections, it looks increasingly likely that the PAP will not be automatically returned to power come Nomination Day.

During the recent elections, the 37 seats that the PAP garnered by walkover was at seven GRCs – Bishan-Toa Payoh (5), Holland-Bukit Panjang (5), Hong Kah (5), Jurong (5), Marine Parade (6), Tanjong Pagar (6) and West Coast (5). During the last elections, the existing opposition contested all the single member wards, but didn’t contest the aforementioned GRCs.

However, analyzing the walkabout patterns of the current opposition parties, it appears that more than one has targeted a certain GRC. Thus far, only single member wards have seen three-cornered fights, but not for GRCs. History tells us that a three-cornered fight for a GRC is unlikely but a lot will depend on how the opposition parties eyeing a particular GRC resolve this issue. However, the money is on a previously uncontested GRC seeing a contest, and the results could be interesting.

What are the implications of having more opposition parties? For one, it will look less likely that the PAP will be returned to power on Nomination Day. The other scenario is that we will probably see a contest in a previously uncontested GRC. It will also be interesting to see how voters will react to the situation when the PAP is no longer returned to parliament on Nomination Day. Would this lead to them making more courageous decisions to vote for changes or trigger a risk-adverse reaction that makes them unable to tolerate changes?